2006 Technology To Watch: Thin Film Solar

Something about the start of a new year inspires writers the world over to make their bold predictions. For an advocate of passive investing styles, predicting the direction of the market seems counter-productive, so instead, I will venture into technology commercialization and predict that 2006 will be the year of thin film. One of the most intriguing companies in this field just happens to be down the street from me. Heliovolt was listed on PriceWaterhouseCoopers' Futurecentric List for 2005, a development which will surely raise its profile. Heliovolt is not a public company, and I have no connection whatsoever with management.

Solar Energy as a technology has been held back for decades due to the industry's reliance on silicon. Solar panels are rigid, difficult to install, fragile, and most of all, expensive. The silicon alone costs approximately $2.50 per watt installed. In the most hospitable envinronment for silicon -- those areas with bost abundant sunlight and generous tax subsidies for installing solar -- the cost of generating solar electricity comes to $5 per watt. To be competitive with fossil fuels and even wind, that figure needs to be in the $3 neighborhood.

Heliovolt uses Copper Indium Celenide, a thin film capable of generating electricity. Thin film can be incorporated into shingles and curtain walls. Some visionaries and other technologists foresee solar energy-generating paint on the horizon. I am not the person to consult on the engineering behind any of this, but Heliovolt claims that its manufacturing process can lower the price of installing solar energy to $1 per watt, knocking out a significant chunk out of a non-renewable advantage.